The Envelope/LA Times has an interesting article about
Syriana's excellent box office last weekend, which then veers into Oscar talk:
Early riser
'Syriana' gets off to a fast start, but still needs to prove its mettle against the big boys.
November 30, 2005
"Syriana" played to packed houses this weekend, and distributor Warner Bros. crowed about the picture's $74,900 per-theater average.
The political thriller has pulled in $605,175 so far at two theaters in Los Angeles, two in New York and one in Toronto. Strong traffic, to be sure, but a highly talked about studio picture better be auspicious on such a limited basis.
That's especially true on Thanksgiving weekend, a frame when the box office is inflated across the board.
How does the "Syriana" opening compare to other recent limited openers? This year, only Warner Bros. stablemate "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride," had a higher opening per-theater average: $77,633, also at five venues. It ultimately found a modest audience, with $53.1 million grossed thus far.
"The Aristocrats" boasted $60,949 per location in its debut earlier this year, but failed to connect with the mainstream, hauling in just $6.3 million.
In recent years, pictures like "Punch-Drunk Love" and "I Heart Huckabees" celebrated $70,000-plus averages out of the gate, only to founder from there.
Remember, a high per-theater average is only an indicator of possible widespread success, so it's too early to deem "Syriana" a commercial hit, which it must to be a force in the best picture race.
Fortunately for "Syriana," political intrigue plays well outside of New York and Los Angeles. "Syriana" writer Stephen Gaghan's "Traffic" drew crowds in both limited and wide release prior to its Oscar nominations. Earlier this year, "The Interpreter" — another film saddled with the liberal political label — made a solid $72.6 million.
Warner Bros. plans to add five venues to "Syriana" on Friday, and then will take the film nationwide to about 1,900 theaters on Dec. 9, opposite the opening of "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe."
One area where "Syriana" could score even if it fizzles at the box office is in the best supporting actor race, where George Clooney seems to be making a smart tactical decision. The best actor category is simply too competitive with the likes of Joaquin Phoenix ("Walk the Line"), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") and David Strathairn ("Good Night, and Good Luck") in the fray. Meanwhile, supporting actor appears to be a weaker category.
Clooney is respected in the industry as an actor, producer and activist, and between "Syriana" and "Good Night, and Good Luck," he has tackled political themes that Hollywood likes to back. Unfortunately, the Oscar race is little more than a political campaign, hence the focus on factors inessential to his performance and the hyping of sensational aspects (like how he gained 30 pounds for the role).
Meanwhile, "Rent" looks like it will go the way of last year's "The Phantom of the Opera." Director Chris Columbus' adaptation of the 1996 Broadway musical has an audience, garnering $17.7 million in six days. But those numbers are not sizable enough to classify the picture as a hit, something it needs in order to overcome a mixed critical reception and to stick with the academy.
"Pride & Prejudice" fueled speculation for dark horse best picture and actress bid, thanks to a successful nationwide release. Focus Features sold the Jane Austen adaptation, featuring Keira Knightley, more as a frothy romantic comedy than an uptight costumed affair, and the movie snared a solid $7.2 million for the weekend at 1,299 theaters. It will need to survive the post-Thanksgiving slump that most pictures suffer in order to maintain momentum.
Then there's "Walk the Line," which looks more and more like it will transform Johnny Cash into the Man in Gold with nominations for picture, actor and actress and then some.
In addition to being the type of picture that Oscar voters dig, it's also a crowd pleaser. The music drama had the best hold among major wide releases over the weekend, and with $55.2 million in the till after 11 days, it's on track to top "Ray" as the highest-grossing picture of its genre — and that's before it receives any boost from nominations.
Waiting in the wings though are most of the major best picture wannabes, each of which will test the waters in limited release. On Dec. 9 comes "Brokeback Mountain," "Memoirs of a Geisha" and "Mrs. Henderson Presents," and then on Christmas weekend there's "Munich" and "The New World."